Predicting Outage

Mike Harding (Sun Preventive (sic) Services) presented on his groups new offerings. The highlight for me was his very dramatic illustration that standard availability metrics i.e. Four or Five Nines are historic and cannot be changed, in order to manage, leading indicators are needed which is why Sun has developed the Operational Risk Index (ORI). This may not be new to some of you, but it is to me despite Richard Morgan’s attempts to keep me up to date.  Mike also had a very dramatic illustration of risk dimensions, differentiating between probability and severity (or cost). Interestingly the bulk of the audience chose to minimise probability not cost.


Again look at the date, it’s all table stakes today, the insights might have been original and ground breaking at the time. Originally at This post was commented upon,

I too think its interesting that decreasing the probability of an outage is more popular than cost. Sun’s customers told us this 3 years ago when they said availability is everything. Yet, when faced with the numbers today, my experience indicates that consumers, when faced with the choice will choose cost and techinicans will choose to minimize the probability of outage. The only real solution to this is to create high availability appliances (or utiities) at low cost so other, more salient drivers can effect margins.

Posted by Darryl Hamer on March 01, 2005 at 04:46 AM PST

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