Who’ll win in the London Euro poll?

The LibDems are going to struggle. Will Labour get three MEPs? Will Jean Lambert, the Green keep her seat?

After the ORG hustings, I had a brief word with Claude Moraes about the likely results, whether Labour would win more seats and if Sarah Ludford, the sole London LibDem MEP would hold on. The following day, the Evening standard published an article quoting a YouGov poll, putting Labour well in the front in London. The Standard’s article sadly doesn’t quote its YouGov source, which may have been private and it does not mention the Greens. The most recent YouGov report I can find is dated early May, and is here. In addition the counting method is complex. I have  sought to see what the results in London might be based on what data I have. The following forecasts,

Source When Lab Tory UKIP Green Lib Dem
Standard 15 May 37% 23% 21% 9% 9%
You Gov 6 May 30% 23% 21% 11% 10%

give the following results,

Source When Lab Tory UKIP Green Lib Dem
Standard 15 May 3 2 2 1 or none 1 or none
You Gov 6 May 2 or 3 2 2 1 1 or none

Ludford and the LibDems are going to struggle. Will Labour get three? Will Jean Lambert, the Green keep her seat?

I am accurately reporting the Standard but examining the votes table above begs the question as to where the Labour votes came from; the votes do not add up to 100%. This is due to me (and the Standard) truncating the other categories used by YouGov and not reporting them. I have assumed/guessed that two percent have come from the Greens but I may still be overestimating the Green vote.

ooOOOoo

For those interested, my spreadsheet is here….

I was also trying to work out how to calculate the result using non procedural techniques, so that the spreadsheet can document the method. I decided not to do this since there are probably several, most involving transmute function and pivot and anti-pivot techniques, and I couldn’t be bothered. I did it by eye, but I have stated the most accessible technique to me below.

  1. List the parties and their votes in descending order
  2. Calculate their 2nd, 3rd and 4th vote quotas (votes/(seats won plus 1))
  3. Create a value descending sorted list of key/value pairs consisting of party & votes or quota
  4. The regions have different number of winners, and the seats are won by the list in order.

The SQL might look like this, based on a results table consisting of the party, its votes and its 2nd, 3rd and 4th seat quota.

Select top 8 from (
    select party, votes “quota” from results 
    union 
    select party, 2 “quota” from results 
    union 
    select party, 3 “quota” from results 
    union 
    select party,4 “quota” from results
    order by quota descending )

 

2 Comments.

  1. learnings from #labourdoorstep | Well Red - pingback on May 21, 2014 at 11:47 pm
  2. Vote Labour in Deptford | Well Red - pingback on May 21, 2014 at 11:47 pm

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