Yesterday, Betfair announced that they were paying out to the “No” bets on their sportsbook, and the exchange is offering odds implying a 75% probability that the “No” vote will win. Many people seem to be ready to offer the voters in Scotland their advice, so I thought I’d join in, although in my case it’s all a bit late, it would seem. More so if you consider the views of Mona Chalabi at 538 Blog who points out that many postal ballots have already been cast and at the time they were cast, the No vote had a lead in the polls.
For a long time, I couldn’t see what advice I had to offer as a Brit who had no connection with Scotland. My mind was made up after reading Bill Mitchell on his blog, “I would be voting NO in Scotland but with a lot of anger“.
He argues that control of economic policy is key to real independence and that the SNP ‘s currency plans mean that independence is not on offer! The currency choice is Sterling or the Euro and in neither case will the Scottish people be able to control their monetary policy, and in all likelihood neither will they be able to control their fiscal policy. The upshot is that a basically Social Democratic country, will be disenfranchised from making economic policy; capital will flee mainly to England, cheered on by Scottish resident savers and who would buy Scottish Government sterling bonds. While Salmond argues that Norway is the example for an independent Scotland, he ignores Greece , Italy and Cyprus, and fails to remember that Norway has its own currency. The upshot of an independence vote is that 5m Scots will become citizens of an English colony and be unable to vote for the Parliament that directs the Central Bank.
Ed Miliband asked the people of Scotland to support him in forming the next British Social Democratic Government as an act of solidarity, in fact it’s an act of self interest.